Water Penguin MillTier 1
at FORTRESS AMB REGIONALS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 46.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 61.7% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.3% | +7.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.6% | +5.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |